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Tag: clayton-kershaw

  • Week fourteen highlights, lowlights, and observations

    Week fourteen highlights, lowlights, and observations

    -Following the body blow delivered by The Snakes last night the Dodgers are now 61-35 and their lead in the NL West is down to 12.5 games. 59.2% of the season is complete.

    -Last weekend the Dodgers looked great against the Padres winning three of four. They came back twice in the first two games of the series last weekend. On Thursday, they were down 6-2 before pounding San Diego pitching for 17 hits on the way to a 12-7 win. 

    -Then on Friday, the Dodgers were down 3-nil only to have Teo Hernandez go full John Lee Hooker (boom boom). Ohtani pitched another great game, and the Dodgers won 4-3.

    -“We never give up,” Teo said after that game.

    -Then Dodgers became the first team to 60 wins this season hub by beating the Rockies last Monday night. Shohei Ohtani smacked his 300th career homer on Tuesday night, the 5th-fastest player to ever achieve that milestone. 

    -The Blue took 2 of 3 from the Rockies before hosting the Snakes Friday night and Yesterday. Sho skipped his start on Friday but homered (his 301st because, math is hard). Yamamoto gave up 5 runs in the 5th last night to have his ERA blow up to 2.49. 

    -Last weekend the Mets and Braves played a fun series, with the Mets earning a split. It was a missed opportunity for the Braves to extend their lead in the division, but the Mets decided to wake up and play some good baseball.

    -Look, if you are a major league baseball team there’s never a bad time for you to play good baseball.

    -Then again one gets the feeling that the season is going to be defined for the Mets in the next few weeks, as they decide whether to fight this one out or look to the future as the trade deadline approaches on August 3rd. 

    -Will they fight for a wildcard spot, or do the go full Alanis Morissette and choke down the jagged little pill that is selling off their players for the prospect of a better future?

    -The Tigers are in the same situation with Tarik Skubal. The 2-time Cy Young winner in the AL is pitching well again and is a free agent at the end of the year. He’s 29 years young so could fetch quite a haul for Detroit should they decide to trade rather than sign him or – worst case for Tigers fans – let him walk and get nothing in return.

    -The dilemma for Tigers management is that the team is 8-2 in their last 10, only 5.5 games back of division co-leaders Chicago and Cleveland, and play in a weak AL Central division.

    -If you’re the Tigers GM, do you keep Skubal in the hopes of getting into October and going deep into the playoffs against weaker opponents, or cut your losses now and trade him for 2 or 3 top prospects. Or better yet, a ton of cash from LA or NY?

    -Or do you try to lock-him in to a longer term deal, the way that the Dodgers did when they could with Kershaw?

    -After winning his first Cy Young award in 2011, a year in which he won the pitching triple crown (wins, strikeouts, and ERA) in only his second full season and at age 25, in 2013 the Dodgers rewarded Kershaw with a 7-year, $215 million contract plus a $500K signing bonus. At the time it was the richest contract ever given to a pitcher.

    -Kersh responded by winning the next two Cy Young awards, an a league MVP in 2014.

    -The 2014 year was the best year I’ve ever seen a pitcher have, not nicknamed Bulldog. Kershaw was 21-3 with 1.77 ERA and 239 K’s.

    -Also worth noting Kersh was Cy Young runner up in 2012 and 2017, and third in 2015.

    -The decline really began in 2016, albeit a year when he underwent minor back surgery and still posted a 1.69 ERA in 149 innings – he missed about half the season that year. He was dominant but not the workhorse the Dodgers depended on from 2011-2015. 

    -Other health issues started creeping up, and with it, his fastball crept down. Average fastball velocity fell from 94.2 miles per hour in 2015 to 90.3 in 2019. 

    -His numbers remained elite almost to the end of his career, but he was unable to stay on the field. 2018 at age 30, biceps tendinitis, back injury. 2019 age 31, back inflammation. 2019 is probably the first season we no longer had “peak” Kershaw.

    -The Dodges paid for Kershaw at just the right time, when he was already established as a dominant force and would be for the next 5 years.

    -Then around age 29 or 30, his body began to fail him. About the same age Skubal is right now.

    -Here’s how the Dodgers fared in Kershaw’s later years:

    -2017, Kershaw is age 29 – lost* in WS to Asterisks

    -2018, age 30 – lost in WS to Red Sox

    -2019, age 31 – lost in NLDS to Nats

    -2020, age 32 – won in WS over Rays

    -2021, age 33 – lost in NLDS to Fathers (Kersh was unavailable due to injury)

    -2022, age 34 – lost to Fathers in NLDS

    -2023, age 35 – swept by Snakes in NLDS

    -2024, age 36 – won in WS over Yankees (unavailable due to injury)

    -2025, age 37 – won in WS over Toronto

    -So one could argue, the Dodger’s recent October success actually increased after Kershaw began declining from his individual peak.

    -The team shifted from being one that often needed Kershaw to be superhuman to one deep enough to win without requiring him to carry them every October.

    -No doubt, he was still a meaningful contributor, especially in 2020. But later championship clubs in 2024 and 2025 could absorb his age and injuries in a way earlier Dodger teams could not.

    -Thankfully after his Hall of Fame career, he finished with three rings, and walked it off with the last two.

    -I’ll ask again. If you’re the Tigers GM, do you keep Skubal in the hope of winning the pennant and a series or two in October or do you cut your losses now for the future?

    -Sign the old man, Tigers.

  • How the Dodgers Should Play October

    How the Dodgers Should Play October

    Art by @snarshall

    At the beginning of the 2025 baseball season, Dodgers’ Andrew Friedman was asked how it feels to have so many injured pitchers on his team. “Not fun,” he replied. 

    He might have been predicting his bullpen’s performance in August. Also, not fun.

    Last year’s world champion Dodgers relied heavily on the bullpen. They needed to, since the starting pitchers showed up to the ballpark every night held together with pine tar. Remember the “bullpen games” that September, then in the NLCS against the Padres, and then in the World Series? 

    The Dodgers’ bullpen and the New York Yankees gave us a championship in 2024, and for that and Freddie Freeman we are forever grateful, blessed was the fifth inning of game five, amen.

    But that was then and these are the chaotic 2025 Dodgers, who can look like world beaters for a week and then get beat down the next. 

    We Dodger fans don’t have the luxury of dreaming about this October on 2024 terms. The odds of winning the division are in the Dodgers’ favor, but unless they catch the Phillies for the second seed and earn a first round playoff bye, the third seed means a 3-game wild card series against probably the Mets or Cubs. A short series could go sideways more quickly than the plan for Roki Sasaki.

    In a year where the bullpen has been shaky, the prospect of a short series makes rotation choices and role adjustments all the more crucial.

    The biggest adjustment the Dodgers need to make is painfully clear. It’s a jagged pill to swallow but it must be done.

    Shohei Ohtani should be the fourth starter. Clayton Kershaw should move to long relief. I propose:

    • Yoshinobu Yamamoto: The Ace. Game 1 starter vs. anyone.
    • Blake Snell: The left-handed counterpunch. Cy Young. Playoff tested. Has been great of late.
    • Tyler Glasnow: Dominant so far this month. Can take over a game, but when it goes south, yikes.
    • Shohei Ohtani: Has built up to this, has dominant stuff, thrives in the spotlight.

    That’s the group Roberts must ride to Trophy Town. They are all pitching well at the moment, and any of them can swing a series on his own. 

    Look, I’m a Kershaw guy. But for the first time in a generation, Clayton Kershaw isn’t – shouldn’t – be in the Dodgers’ postseason rotation. Instead, his value lies in the bullpen, and that’s not a demotion. It’s evolution.

    Kershaw has absolutely earned his place on this roster. But in October, you want dominant strikeout stuff on the mound if you’ve got it, which the Dodgers have in Yoshi, Zilla, Glasnow, and Sho. What the Dodgers do not have is stability in the bullpen, and Kershaw is perfectly suited to bring that. They don’t need a fifth starter, but they might need a left-handed long reliever who can steady things if a starter wobbles. That’s where Kershaw’s experience can make an impact most. Kershaw might not throw the first pitch of any game, but he could still throw some of the most important ones.

    The Dodgers’ bullpen has been middling to terrible all season, as far as contenders go. Tanner Scott is the nominal closer, but Roberts has openly wondered what to do with him since he seems to be healthy and throwing with velocity but can’t stop grooving fastballs down the middle of the plate. Scott has shared with reporters that he feels like “baseball hates him,” right now.

    In their defense, hitters love him right now. But feeling like the game hates you is probably not the best mental space for a closer to hold come playoff time. 

    Roberts will manage by feel. If Alex Vesia looks sharp, he could close. If Blake Treinen has command, he’ll take the eighth or ninth. If Michael Kopech can find the strike zone, he might even close a game on a given night.

    Don’t expect set roles. Roberts proved last year that he is the maestro of knowing how to play the right cards.

    In the post season he’ll pull the plug quickly if trouble starts. Kershaw could become the bullpen bridge Roberts trusts most.

    The Dodgers’ lineup is still a weapon, and after last week it looks sharper now than it did a month ago (fine, the Rockies make teams look good, but still). Ohtani is the MVP of the league. Mookie looks like Mookie at the plate again, and at short leads the league in defensive runs saved – you can read about his expanding HOF credentials here. Ohtani is the MVP of the universe but Freddie Freeman might be the MVP of this team. Will Smith (hoping he gets healthy quick) has had an unbelievable year. Teoscar Hernandez in the fifth slot is seeing the ball better and – lo and behold – his defense has improved the last few weeks. It’s great to see Max Muncy back in uniform, the lineup is much longer with him in the sixth slot, followed by Pages and Rojas or Kim. I like Edman batting ninth as a second leadoff guy. Alex Call off the bench has looked good.

    Here’s how the pitching blueprint would round out depending on if we end up as the second or third seed:

    • Third seed: Wild Card Series (best of 3). Yamamoto in Game 1, Snell in Game 2, and Glasnow available for a decisive Game 3.
    • NLDS (best of 5): Ohtani starts Game 1 or 2 depending on Wild Card usage. (Oh the spectacle of Shohei starting in October!) if we end up a second seed, Yamamoto gets game one. Yamamoto could return for a Game 5. Kershaw becomes the bullpen safety net if starters don’t go deep.
    • NLCS and World Series (best of 7): Yamamoto and Snell each start twice, Glasnow and Ohtani take the other turns. Game 7 is all hands on deck: Glasnow to start, Yamamoto and Snell in relief, Kershaw ready to eat innings if chaos strikes. Orel Hershiser is in the booth if we need him late in game seven to pull a Buehler.

    Kershaw’s shift to long relief isn’t about fading away, t’s about filling the role this bullpen desperately needs. He’s not the headline starter anymore; he’s the trusted arm Doc can call when the season teeters on the edge. Which may happen the first week of October if LA plays New York or Chicago in a short series.