baldwinhere

Tag: Dodgers

  • 2025 Baseball Playoff Predictions

    Saturday, November 1st – World Series Game 7

    It’s down to a best of one. 

    Looking backwards through Kike-colored lenses, that a game seven is necessary seems inevitable. 

    “Game seven.” The best two words in baseball, maybe in sports. The last game of the season. For some it will be the last game they ever play.

    Win it, instant baseball immortality.

    Lose it, and you’re highlight reel folly, a memory that even die hard fans let slip.

    Case in point: who do the Dodgers beat to win the 2020 World Series? 

    If you’re reading this, I know you know the answer, but here it is in case you’re experiencing game six hangover. 

    If you’re a Blue Jays or Dodgers player, the last thing you want is to be remembered as the team that lost the WS. 

    It’s either GOAT or goat.

    Even if you’re a Blue Jays fan, you had to appreciate last night‘s game six, a tense 3-1 Dodger win to force game seven.

    • Yamamoto was great, again, again. His one run in six innings ballooned his ERA in October to 1.58.  Unless something crazy special happens tonight, if the Dodgers win Yoshi is the WS MVP. If the Jays win, Vlad Jr. is the MVP. 
    • Since he’s been a Dodger, my favorite version of Mookie is when he hits the ball hard to the left side of the field. This October, he’s been swinging hard and popping up to the right side. So in addition to the runs, I was stoked to see him pull the ball hard for two steaks. I think the entire LA basin sank an inch as we all breathed a collective sigh of relief, for gaining the lead, but also for Mook. 
    • During Mookie’s bases-loaded at bat, there was a graphic on the screen reminding us that he’s Mookie-Freaking-Betts. Something like lifetime .340 hitter with the bases laded and seven grand slams. Clutch.
    • Talking about clutch, how about Miguel Rojas’ leather? Dude made three great plays last night. Of course the heads up play to double up Addison Barger to win the game. But his play on the sharp ground ball in the third and the high hop grounder in the seventh that he barehanded and flipped to Freddie? He didn’t even use leather on that one. 
    • How cool would it be for Betts to win the gold glove this year at short and Rojas to win the gold glove at utility? The mentor and the mentee both recognized? It can and should happen.
    • Kike’s play to end the game in the ninth inning had a 40% catch probability. His jump was 7.3 feet above average. Kik-tober in full effect.
    • Verified and admitted cheater, George Springer, had a good game. And like Forrest Gump, that’s all I have to say about that.

    I figure Shohei must start tonight, so he can stay at DH should he not pitch a complete game (side: how crazy would that be? It is possible, because he is after all, Shohei.) If he’s removed from the game as a reliever, the Dodgers lose his bat. 

    Blue Jays counter with Max Scherzer, who is still as good as he is grumpy. 

    Dodgers win in the game of the century, 10-9.

    ###

    Friday, October 24th – World Series

    The World Series begins today so it’s time for a final round of predictions. Although last round I was only 50% correct, I am REALLY happy that I at least got the right 50% right. Because being 50% right works 100% of the time, when your 50% is 100% your team.

    The Dodgers and Blue Jays are both very good teams. Any team that makes it to the WS in this era is at least a good team. They both score runs, have good pitching, have big time stars and role players that step up.

    The Dodgers may be a great team. Some baseball writers are suggesting this could be greatest team ever assembled with likely Hall of Famers Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, and Kershaw, and the rest of the roster stacked with hall of very good players (and a few on the cusp of HOF consideration) like Smith and Teo. All character guys, all who play for each other, all high baseball IQs, all aware of their legacy.

    The Blue Jays counter with a potent mix of home grown talent, player development, and smart spending on big names. They signed Vlad Guerrero Jr. at age 16, he crushed through the minors and blossomed into a star, then the Jays tried to land Ohtani and failed, so they paid Vlad instead, signing him to a 12-year, $500 million contract. 

    They’ve thrived with Bo Bichette (who has been hurt but is active for the WS) and verified cheater George Springer.

    It doesn’t seem to bother MLB that Springer was the 2017 World Series MVP on the cheating Astros. MLB podcasts and other sources remind of his “accomplishment” and every time I hear, “George Springer, 2017 World Series MVP,” I look for the nearest trash can, mostly so I can throw up in it.

    Springer seems like a good guy. He overcame a stuttering problem and is a hero to many parents and families with children who are doing the same, which is wonderful.

    And, he cheated his way to a World Series trophy, celebrating on our field at Chavez Ravine.

    Both are true and neither is relevant for this series, really. But it does rub at the back of my neck, like an annoying string that I can’t quite grab and pull off, a fraying collar on a shirt I wish I didn’t have to keep but can’t get rid of.

    MLB needs to put an asterisk on that “championship” for every player that claims to have “won” it.

    Anyhow. Do the Jays spend $500 million on Guerrero if Shohei agrees to sign two years ago? We’ll never know. But things are working out for both organizations now.

    Both the Dodgers and Blue Jays are comeback teams. They tied for the MLB lead with 52 comeback wins this year, which means more than half of both team’s wins were of the comeback variety.

    Both teams play good defense. The Dodgers have Gold Glove candidates in Betts and Rojas while the Jays team led the AL in defensive runs saved. The Jays’ Ty France, Vlad Guerrero, Andres Gimenez, Ernie Clement, and Alejandro Kirk are Gold Glove finalists.

    Both have great offenses. The Dodgers hitting has been timely, and the Blue Jays have simply mashed this post season. The Jays are putting up nearly 7 runs a game in October, an insane number that would be impressive during any 12-game stretch, let alone in the playoffs. They also play small ball well, hitting the other way to move the runners over, or laying down a bunt when called for. 

    The Jays have been successful in scoring runs without Bichette. How they plan to use him is a question. Is he healthy enough to play short, and if they DH him, will Springer be a defensive liability in left?

    Either way, good pitching usually beats good hitting, and the Dodgers’ pitching in the postseason has been lights out, as in, all-time great level stuff. The July-August maze of “who sucks the least today” that Dave Roberts had to navigate feels like a bad dream. 

    Too much is being made of the “rust vs. rest” factor. Yes, the Dodgers have had almost a week off while the Blue Jays have stayed sharp by winning their 7-game series against Seattle. There is a history, although a small sample size, of teams that sweep the championship series losing in the WS.

    To counter this, the Dodgers have been playing simulated games this week. They played a 7-inning game on Wednesday and have had guys on regular practice and workout schedules. 

    Last year the Dodgers had a bye in the first round, and with it a week off from playing before the division series began, which worked out fine in the end.

    Bottom line: If the Dodgers continue to get 7+ innings from Snell and Yamamoto, and 6ish from Glasnow and Ohtani, the Dodgers will win. If the Dodgers’ starting pitching struggles, the series is more up for grabs. But I’m betting that won’t happen. 

    Dodgers in 5.

    ###

    Sunday, October 12, 2025 – Championship Series

    Welcome to the Final Four!

    I was 3-for-4 again last round, with only the Yankees going belly up (sorry, Cody), allowing the Blue Jays to advance along with the Mariners in the American League, and the Brewers and Dodgers in the National League.

    When proactively prognosticating post-season performance, previewing previous production is pointless (that just came out — no idea why. My apologies.) The “postseason” includes the word “season” because it plays like a new one. There are countless examples of regular-season studs who struggle in October, and others who hit .215 all year only to bat .315 in the playoffs. It’s a unique sports phenomenon.

    Of course, some great players stay great year-round and carry their teams through to championships. But when players have never been to October (e.g., Seattle), it’s difficult to predict how they’ll respond to playoff pressure.

    There’s an intrinsic factor that champions possess. After the fact, they talk about visualizing the outcome before it happened. They talk about good scouting, management’s commitment to winning — owners having and spending the budget to bring in good leadership and players — and the right mix of athletes led by a coaching staff, and most importantly, a manager who knows which levers to pull and gears to turn at key moments.

    There exists an alchemy of those elements — plus a bit of luck — that results in hoisting a championship banner.

    So which teams will represent their league in this year’s World Series?

    Toronto vs. Seattle
    If this were based on City Connect uniforms alone, the Blue Jays would already be crowned champions. The Jays represent all of Canada, being the only Canadian MLB franchise, and their City Connect uniforms are freaking awesome. So, there’s that.

    Vlad Guerrero Jr. is a verified star. He took less money to stay in Toronto — he loves the city, and they love him. The Blue Jays also feature 2017 World Series MVP and verified cheater George Springer. Springer hit five home runs in the ’17 World Series, very likely benefiting from the Astros’ illegal sign-stealing scheme, which they admitted to and apologized for in 2020.

    And if you think it’s a coincidence that seminal progressive rock band and Toronto natives Rush announced their new tour this week… well, it probably is a coincidence. But the fact that the greatest trio in the history of progressive rock will be touring next summer, paying nightly homage to drummer and lyricist Neil Ellwood Peart (aka “The Professor”), and that remaining band members Geddy Lee and Alex Lifeson announced their tour within hours of the Blue Jays’ ass-kicking of the Yankees… it’s almost enough for me to pick the Blue Jays and call it a day.

    Almost.

    The problem is: Seattle has pitching. Really, really good pitching. They also have a catcher, Cal Raleigh, who draws comparisons to Mickey Mantle while hitting north of 50 homers and playing Gold Glove defense. They don’t have home-field advantage, but if they steal a game in Toronto, they’ll play in front of fans so loud that the stadium literally shakes — according to scientists monitoring Richter scale activity.

    It’s a lineup that beat Tarik Skubal four times this year. Skubal hasn’t lost four times since playing tic-tac-toe when he was six, and he’s been undefeated since then — no cat games (unverified).

    Seattle in six.

    Milwaukee vs. Los Angeles
    As mentioned previously, I haven’t picked against the Dodgers since 1993, the year after they lost almost 100 games (they lost 99), and the best hitter on the team was projected to be Jose Offerman. Fortunately for L.A., a kid named Mike Piazza made the team and won Rookie of the Year after hitting .318 with 35 homers.

    They showed me.

    The Dodgers finished fourth that year but kept the Giants from winning the division on the last day of the season thanks to Piazza’s two homers.

    None of that has anything to do with this series, other than to say the Dodgers will win in five games.

    Look, I get I’m a Dodgers homer. But consider this: the Dodgers’ starting pitching is awesome — Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow, and Ohtani — and their bullpen is finally figured out with Sheehan, Vesia, and Sasaki.

    The Dodgers’ lineup is loaded, with three lock Hall-of-Famers in Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman; a couple of “Hall of Very Good” players in Smith (who may join the big three if he’s not careful) and Teo; and a great supporting cast in Pages, Edman, Rojas, et al. Add the best manager in the game, and the Dodgers are the team to beat from here on out.

    Milwaukee has had a great, even magical, season. It’s a very good team, and Pat Murphy is a good man and a good manager. The Brewers had two 10-plus-game winning streaks this season. They have a mix of veteran leadership (Yelich, Contreras) and young phenoms (Misiorowski and Patrick). They steal bases, they pitch well, they play defense, their fans bring energy.

    Dodgers win in five.

    ###

    Saturday, October 4th – Division Series

    On to the Elite Eight. The five-game series format carries less angst than the three-game “win or go home” feel of the wild card, unless of course your team drops Game 1 and you start spinning into the dirt like a Yoshi Yamamoto splitter. Which of course I don’t do. No, no, I never worry about baseball because this is just a fun hobby. 

    Okay fine this sh*t keeps me up night! 

    Who should start Game 4? Does that change if we are up 2-1 or down 1-2? Can Teoscar Hernandez be trusted to catch fly balls? The kid Sasaki has closer stuff, but can Roberts Jedi mind-trick him into believing he IS a closer? Will the Dodgers bullpen chaos continue or will Doc turn to Kersh late in a close game to get Schwarber, Turner, and Harper? I have no idea but it sure is fun to speculate.

    My predictions for the Division Series

    I did pretty well on the wild card – Dodgers, Cubs, and Yankees advanced. I wasn’t counting on the Tigers to have anything left in the tank, but it turns out, still, they’re…grrreat! Sorry, had to.

    Yankees v. Blue Jays. Jays have home field advantage but no Bo Bichette. Yanks have momentum having just handled their arch rivals, and great starting pitching including rookie Cam Schlittler who looked more Cy than Cam in game 3 against Boston. Plus they mash. Yankees win.

    Tigers v. Mariners. Cal Raleigh is so good, they named a string of hits after him. In his age 28 season he’s become a legit elite hitter. His OPS+ at 169 was third in MLB to Ohtani’s 175 and Judge’s 212(!). These are baseball god-like numbers. Babe Ruth’s lifetime OPS+ was 206, Ted Williams’ 191, Lou Gehrig’s 179. Unlike the Big Dumper, none of them had the burden of playing catcher. Raleigh has very good players around him in the lineup, deep pitching, and were great at home this year (the Mariners have home-field advantage). As for Detroit, one can never count out verified cheater A.J. Hinch, who is a very good manager on a very good team. If they steal game 1 and Terik goes Skubal in game 2, things could get interesting. But I’m picking the M’s.

    Cubs v. Brewers. The Cubs have Pete Crow Armstrong and wouldn’t it be cool to get Justin Turner another shot at glory? It would be, but the Brewers were a team possessed this year and with long-time announcer Bob Uecker’s passing, they are playing for something larger than themselves. Brewers move on.

    Dodgers v. Phillies. This is the one we’ve been waiting for, the series Dodger fans knew was inevitable. It’s going to be fun to watch, with stars and studs at nearly every position. Both lineups feature budding or legit Hall of Fame players. Starting pitching is about even with the Dodgers having a slight edge, but the Phillies’ Sanchez and Suarez will be tough on the Dodgers’ left-leaning lineup (if there was ever a time for Will Smith to start feeling better, this is it). The Phills have a better bullpen, and so do 20 of the 29 other MLB teams. Of course that was the regular season and before the emergence of Roki Sasaki as a dominant late-inning force. If Sasaki stays hot and the Dodger starters do what Dodger starters have done for the past six weeks, the pen just needs one additional guy – just one – to bridge between the starter and young Roki. If one of those guys down there steps up – Treinen, Sheehan, Vesia, Henriquez…Kershaw? – then the Dodgers can win. If not, they can’t. This series will be won or lost in the 7th and 8th inning of every game. And because Dave Roberts is the best manager in the game when it comes to managing pitching in the post season, I’m going with the Dodgers.

    Of course I haven’t picked against the Dodgers since 1993, so take this with a grain of salt. 

    September 30, 2025

    OK, here we go baseball fans! My predictions for the wildcard round:

    Guardians v. Tigers, at Cleveland. Guardians take this one after once in a forever come back to win the division. Skubal does not win the World Series until he joins the Dodgers rotation, in ‘28.

    Yankees v. Red Sox in New York. Right off the bat (pun intended) today’s pitching matchup might be the best of the entire playoffs, Crochet-Fried. New York takes the series in game three, late inning, dramatic fashion. Aaron Judge shakes off last year, hits close to .500 and homers in each game.

    Cubs-Padres in Chicago. I love Wrigley field so much. I don’t love either one of these teams, however. But one of them has to win, so I predict the Cubs avenge their 1984 NLCS loss and sweep the Padres, who have to fly home on Spirit Airlines with a stop in Denver.

    Dodgers-Reds at Chavez Ravine. Dodgers in three. The Dodgers have been playing much better in September, but there’s that little tug in the back of my mind that remembers August. I’m still not completely convinced, but I think we can win two or three from a team that lost their way into the sixth seed. 

  • How the Dodgers Should Play October

    How the Dodgers Should Play October

    Art by @snarshall

    At the beginning of the 2025 baseball season, Dodgers’ Andrew Friedman was asked how it feels to have so many injured pitchers on his team. “Not fun,” he replied. 

    He might have been predicting his bullpen’s performance in August. Also, not fun.

    Last year’s world champion Dodgers relied heavily on the bullpen. They needed to, since the starting pitchers showed up to the ballpark every night held together with pine tar. Remember the “bullpen games” that September, then in the NLCS against the Padres, and then in the World Series? 

    The Dodgers’ bullpen and the New York Yankees gave us a championship in 2024, and for that and Freddie Freeman we are forever grateful, blessed was the fifth inning of game five, amen.

    But that was then and these are the chaotic 2025 Dodgers, who can look like world beaters for a week and then get beat down the next. 

    We Dodger fans don’t have the luxury of dreaming about this October on 2024 terms. The odds of winning the division are in the Dodgers’ favor, but unless they catch the Phillies for the second seed and earn a first round playoff bye, the third seed means a 3-game wild card series against probably the Mets or Cubs. A short series could go sideways more quickly than the plan for Roki Sasaki.

    In a year where the bullpen has been shaky, the prospect of a short series makes rotation choices and role adjustments all the more crucial.

    The biggest adjustment the Dodgers need to make is painfully clear. It’s a jagged pill to swallow but it must be done.

    Shohei Ohtani should be the fourth starter. Clayton Kershaw should move to long relief. I propose:

    • Yoshinobu Yamamoto: The Ace. Game 1 starter vs. anyone.
    • Blake Snell: The left-handed counterpunch. Cy Young. Playoff tested. Has been great of late.
    • Tyler Glasnow: Dominant so far this month. Can take over a game, but when it goes south, yikes.
    • Shohei Ohtani: Has built up to this, has dominant stuff, thrives in the spotlight.

    That’s the group Roberts must ride to Trophy Town. They are all pitching well at the moment, and any of them can swing a series on his own. 

    Look, I’m a Kershaw guy. But for the first time in a generation, Clayton Kershaw isn’t – shouldn’t – be in the Dodgers’ postseason rotation. Instead, his value lies in the bullpen, and that’s not a demotion. It’s evolution.

    Kershaw has absolutely earned his place on this roster. But in October, you want dominant strikeout stuff on the mound if you’ve got it, which the Dodgers have in Yoshi, Zilla, Glasnow, and Sho. What the Dodgers do not have is stability in the bullpen, and Kershaw is perfectly suited to bring that. They don’t need a fifth starter, but they might need a left-handed long reliever who can steady things if a starter wobbles. That’s where Kershaw’s experience can make an impact most. Kershaw might not throw the first pitch of any game, but he could still throw some of the most important ones.

    The Dodgers’ bullpen has been middling to terrible all season, as far as contenders go. Tanner Scott is the nominal closer, but Roberts has openly wondered what to do with him since he seems to be healthy and throwing with velocity but can’t stop grooving fastballs down the middle of the plate. Scott has shared with reporters that he feels like “baseball hates him,” right now.

    In their defense, hitters love him right now. But feeling like the game hates you is probably not the best mental space for a closer to hold come playoff time. 

    Roberts will manage by feel. If Alex Vesia looks sharp, he could close. If Blake Treinen has command, he’ll take the eighth or ninth. If Michael Kopech can find the strike zone, he might even close a game on a given night.

    Don’t expect set roles. Roberts proved last year that he is the maestro of knowing how to play the right cards.

    In the post season he’ll pull the plug quickly if trouble starts. Kershaw could become the bullpen bridge Roberts trusts most.

    The Dodgers’ lineup is still a weapon, and after last week it looks sharper now than it did a month ago (fine, the Rockies make teams look good, but still). Ohtani is the MVP of the league. Mookie looks like Mookie at the plate again, and at short leads the league in defensive runs saved – you can read about his expanding HOF credentials here. Ohtani is the MVP of the universe but Freddie Freeman might be the MVP of this team. Will Smith (hoping he gets healthy quick) has had an unbelievable year. Teoscar Hernandez in the fifth slot is seeing the ball better and – lo and behold – his defense has improved the last few weeks. It’s great to see Max Muncy back in uniform, the lineup is much longer with him in the sixth slot, followed by Pages and Rojas or Kim. I like Edman batting ninth as a second leadoff guy. Alex Call off the bench has looked good.

    Here’s how the pitching blueprint would round out depending on if we end up as the second or third seed:

    • Third seed: Wild Card Series (best of 3). Yamamoto in Game 1, Snell in Game 2, and Glasnow available for a decisive Game 3.
    • NLDS (best of 5): Ohtani starts Game 1 or 2 depending on Wild Card usage. (Oh the spectacle of Shohei starting in October!) if we end up a second seed, Yamamoto gets game one. Yamamoto could return for a Game 5. Kershaw becomes the bullpen safety net if starters don’t go deep.
    • NLCS and World Series (best of 7): Yamamoto and Snell each start twice, Glasnow and Ohtani take the other turns. Game 7 is all hands on deck: Glasnow to start, Yamamoto and Snell in relief, Kershaw ready to eat innings if chaos strikes. Orel Hershiser is in the booth if we need him late in game seven to pull a Buehler.

    Kershaw’s shift to long relief isn’t about fading away, t’s about filling the role this bullpen desperately needs. He’s not the headline starter anymore; he’s the trusted arm Doc can call when the season teeters on the edge. Which may happen the first week of October if LA plays New York or Chicago in a short series.

  • Six Weeks to Glory, or Heartbreak

    This weekend marks the beginning of the final six weeks of the baseball season and a crucial set of games for playoff contenders. Looking at the rest of August for Lasorda’s Lounge favorites:

    Dodgers, Padres, and the Art of Mutual Loathing

    Having lost the first two of three to a mediocre Angels team (a win tonight would be nice…) we enter the weekend series with San Diego, a team that feels they were robbed last year and that believes in themselves this year, especially now that they share the division lead. After the Padres at home The Azul get four in Colorado, which could be a trap series if they don’t keep up the intensity because, guess what? We get the Padres next weekend too, down at PetCo. Every one of those games will be sold out. LA vs. SD has become one of the better rivalries in the game. The Dodgers close out August at home against a sneaky good Cincy team and the Dbacks, who always play us tough.  

    I like having a fierce rivalry so close to home, it’s about time the Padres stopped being a doormat and started caring. But as a Dodger die-hard it’s an interesting shift. The looks I get from people wearing Padres gear have been curious. I’m used to awkward pauses and sideways glances from dudes in Giants gear; lately, those guys just look away in shame. But Padres fans, they look me square in the eye and smile, as if they want to take something from me. As if they care.

    Good for you, Padres fans. Welcome to adulthood.

    The Mets Are Coming. Hide the Cheesesteaks.

    Your GO METS! comments have been working. The Metropolitans are five games behind the Phillies with six weeks ago, very much within striking range and certainly in the playoff picture. Tyler McGill’s return from the IL later this month should help them as they close out August with Seattle this weekend, then the Braves twice, Washington, Miami, and a big series with Philly Aug. 25-27. 

    From Cy Young to long sigh in Atlanta

    This season has not been kind to the Braves. Spencer Strider may be tipping pitches and 2024 Cy Young winner Chris Sale is about to return from a broken rib. They have the Guardians this weekend before the White Sox, Mets, Miami, and Phillies to close out August. On the upside my namesake might be the NL Rookie of the Year. 

    Pirates Eye Spoiler Role, Fans Eye Football Season

    Aside from Paul Skenes’ dominance (ignore his last start against the red hot Brewers), Pirates fans haven’t had much to look forward to this year. They are 29 games below .500 and 25 games behind in the NL central. But they have an opportunity to redeem themselves and play spoilers this month to contenders Cubs, Blue Jays, and Res Sox, with stops in Colorado and St. Louis. 

  • Betts’ performance this year has helped, not hurt, his case for the Hall of Fame

    Betts’ performance this year has helped, not hurt, his case for the Hall of Fame

    Original art by @snarshall

    Ahh, the weight of expectations.

    When a generational player suddenly looks mortal, fans and media search for explanations. This season, the Dodgers’ player raising the most eyebrows is Marcus Lynn Betts, “Mookie” to… well, everyone. 

    The eight‑time All‑Star and former American League MVP has hit poorly all summer, and his slash line (.238/.309/.370 through July 25) stands more than 170 points below his 2023 peak. Pundits have pointed to his transition from right field to shortstop and his age‐32 season as possible culprits. Yet those surface factors distract from what I believe is the most likely cause: at the end of spring training Betts suffered a mystery illness that caused him to lose 15-25 pounds in roughly three weeks.

    To understand Betts’ season one must understand how severe weight loss impacts athletic performance, how Betts has compensated through defensive excellence, and why his performance this season, though mediocre by Betts’ standards, further cements his Hall of Fame credentials rather than damages them.

    Athletes need muscles. Also, water is wet.

    Standard medical guidance suggests that unexplained weight loss of more than 5% of one’s body weight, or more than 10 pounds over 6-12 months, is concerning and a red flag for more severe illness. These thresholds are important because the body’s energy stores and muscle mass are designed to support daily metabolic demand. Rapid weight loss signals that something has gone wrong with nutrient intake, metabolism, or both.

    In March 2025, just as the season was getting started, Betts got sick and blew through those clinical red flags. At the beginning of spring training he weighed approximately 175 pounds. Late in March he told reporters that an undiagnosed stomach ailment left him “vomiting for two weeks,” unable to keep solid food down. The sickness caused him to drop somewhere between 15 and 25 pounds in about 3 weeks. Remember, 5% weight loss in 6 months is concerning; Betts lost 14% in less than a month. 

    That would be like Will Smith, at 195 pounds, dropping down to 168. Guys like Betts, at 5’ 10”, 175 pounds and able to dunk a basketball, are lean to begin with. Unlike us desk jockeys, they fight to keep weight on, typically taking in 3,500 or more calories daily to keep up with the physical demands of their profession. But Betts’ body revolted against him. At the time, he described the sensation bluntly to reporters: “My body is basically eating itself…every time I eat anything I vomit.”

    In hitting, weight matters.

    Baseball is a skill sport, but it is also bio-mechanical. Generating bat speed and hard contact requires leverage and coordinated rotation of the legs, core and upper body. A drop in body mass means a loss of muscle, which in turn reduces bat speed, but also the body’s ability to absorb the stresses of daily play. Less muscle means less stored energy in the form of glycogen, the body’s internal blood sugar bank. Less glycogen means quicker fatigue and reduced peak force output. For hitters like Betts who rely on quick hands and a compact, powerful swing, even modest decreases in body mass can translate into slower bat speed and weaker contact.

    Statcast data from MLB’s Baseball Savant backs me on this. Before the illness, Betts routinely ranked in the top quartile of hitters in average exit velocity and bat speed. SI reported that in 2025 his average exit velocity fell to 88.3 mph, down 4.1 mph from his 2023 peak and the lowest of his career. His bat speed dipped to 68.8 mph, ranking only in the 11th percentile of MLB (although, Betts’ bat speed has never been great). Betts’ barrel rate (the percentage of batted balls struck with ideal launch angle and exit velocity) dropped to 5.5 percent, and his hard‑hit rate plummeted to 34.1 percent. 

    Can you blame the guy? He just lost 25 pounds three months ago. In retrospect, this was predictable. Of course his bat speed and power numbers were going to suffer.

    Q: But what about his age, or changing positions to shortstop?

    A: Get his HOF plaque ready.

    Look. 32 is not old by today’s baseball standards. Many elite hitters – and although his numbers are suffering this year, Betts is still an elite hitter – maintain high offensive production into their mid‑30s. Derek Jeter hit .330 at age 32 and remained above league average until 37. Betts’ body type and skill set (athleticism, plate discipline, contact ability) typically age better than sluggers who rely on brute strength. The rapidness of his drop from a .307/.408/.579 line in 2023 to .238/.309/.370 in 2025 suggests an external shock rather than a gradual decline. And his plate discipline remains excellent: his 2025 strikeout rate is hovering around 11%, elite for a modern hitter. Walk rate has dipped only slightly from 10.7% to about 9%. The elite mechanics are intact.

    So much has been made of the move to shortstop. SI speculated that “…the physical toll of playing short every day could be contributing to his struggles at the plate.” There is merit to the idea that moving to the infield from outfield adds wear and tear. However Betts’s hitting while playing short last year was solid, even though he was re-learning the position in real time. And re-learned the position he has. While his bat has struggled, Betts has become an above average, maybe excellent, shortstop. 

    According to Baseball‑Reference’s fielding metrics, Betts ranks second among MLB shortstops in total zone runs with 9 runs saved as of July 25th. Outs Above Average (OAA), a more advanced measure provided by Statcast, placed him in the 76th percentile, well above average. His throwing accuracy has visibly improved from a year ago. Baseball’s internal tracking labeled his range (as measured by Range Factor per nine innings) as 4.47, above league average. 

    Only a handful of stars – most notably Robin Yount in the 80’s – have played both the outfield and shortstop successfully, though Yount started as a shortstop and moved the the outfield, the “easier” direction. Betts has joined a very exclusive club and in doing so has built on his HOF resume.

    Hall of Fame voters also consider excellence over a sustained period. Betts’ eight All‑Star selections, seven Silver Slugger Awards, six Gold Gloves, three world championships and 2018 MVP provide a resumé few can match. Even in 2025, while his bat has suffered, he’s remained a team leader, has shown up every day with a smile, talks to fans and the media. He’s Mookie.

    When he eventually enters Cooperstown, the plaque will list his MVP award and his rings. It should also commemorate the season he lost 14% of his body weight, learned to play shortstop, and still found ways to help his team win.

    If the Dodgers win the last game of the season again this year, Betts will be a first ballot inductee. He should be, regardless.

    In a sport obsessed with numbers, context matters.

    Sources

    https://www.reuters.com/sports/dodgers-mookie-betts-out-lineup-vs-sox-could-return-saturday-2025-07-25/

    https://www.mlb.com/news/mookie-betts-battling-undiagnosed-illness

    https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/symptoms/unexplained-weight-loss

    https://www.uclahealth.org/news/article/unexplained-weight-loss-what-it-could-mean#

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/44385494/dodgers-mookie-betts-dealing-illness-lost-15-lbs

    https://people.com/dodgers-star-mookie-betts-lost-25-lbs-from-mystery-illness-11702538

    https://www.si.com/mlb/mookie-betts-decline-inside-the-numbers#

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2025-fielding-leaders.shtml#