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Tag: Mookie Betts

  • Week fourteen highlights, lowlights, and observations

    Week fourteen highlights, lowlights, and observations

    -Following the body blow delivered by The Snakes last night the Dodgers are now 61-35 and their lead in the NL West is down to 12.5 games. 59.2% of the season is complete.

    -Last weekend the Dodgers looked great against the Padres winning three of four. They came back twice in the first two games of the series last weekend. On Thursday, they were down 6-2 before pounding San Diego pitching for 17 hits on the way to a 12-7 win. 

    -Then on Friday, the Dodgers were down 3-nil only to have Teo Hernandez go full John Lee Hooker (boom boom). Ohtani pitched another great game, and the Dodgers won 4-3.

    -“We never give up,” Teo said after that game.

    -Then Dodgers became the first team to 60 wins this season hub by beating the Rockies last Monday night. Shohei Ohtani smacked his 300th career homer on Tuesday night, the 5th-fastest player to ever achieve that milestone. 

    -The Blue took 2 of 3 from the Rockies before hosting the Snakes Friday night and Yesterday. Sho skipped his start on Friday but homered (his 301st because, math is hard). Yamamoto gave up 5 runs in the 5th last night to have his ERA blow up to 2.49. 

    -Last weekend the Mets and Braves played a fun series, with the Mets earning a split. It was a missed opportunity for the Braves to extend their lead in the division, but the Mets decided to wake up and play some good baseball.

    -Look, if you are a major league baseball team there’s never a bad time for you to play good baseball.

    -Then again one gets the feeling that the season is going to be defined for the Mets in the next few weeks, as they decide whether to fight this one out or look to the future as the trade deadline approaches on August 3rd. 

    -Will they fight for a wildcard spot, or do the go full Alanis Morissette and choke down the jagged little pill that is selling off their players for the prospect of a better future?

    -The Tigers are in the same situation with Tarik Skubal. The 2-time Cy Young winner in the AL is pitching well again and is a free agent at the end of the year. He’s 29 years young so could fetch quite a haul for Detroit should they decide to trade rather than sign him or – worst case for Tigers fans – let him walk and get nothing in return.

    -The dilemma for Tigers management is that the team is 8-2 in their last 10, only 5.5 games back of division co-leaders Chicago and Cleveland, and play in a weak AL Central division.

    -If you’re the Tigers GM, do you keep Skubal in the hopes of getting into October and going deep into the playoffs against weaker opponents, or cut your losses now and trade him for 2 or 3 top prospects. Or better yet, a ton of cash from LA or NY?

    -Or do you try to lock-him in to a longer term deal, the way that the Dodgers did when they could with Kershaw?

    -After winning his first Cy Young award in 2011, a year in which he won the pitching triple crown (wins, strikeouts, and ERA) in only his second full season and at age 25, in 2013 the Dodgers rewarded Kershaw with a 7-year, $215 million contract plus a $500K signing bonus. At the time it was the richest contract ever given to a pitcher.

    -Kersh responded by winning the next two Cy Young awards, an a league MVP in 2014.

    -The 2014 year was the best year I’ve ever seen a pitcher have, not nicknamed Bulldog. Kershaw was 21-3 with 1.77 ERA and 239 K’s.

    -Also worth noting Kersh was Cy Young runner up in 2012 and 2017, and third in 2015.

    -The decline really began in 2016, albeit a year when he underwent minor back surgery and still posted a 1.69 ERA in 149 innings – he missed about half the season that year. He was dominant but not the workhorse the Dodgers depended on from 2011-2015. 

    -Other health issues started creeping up, and with it, his fastball crept down. Average fastball velocity fell from 94.2 miles per hour in 2015 to 90.3 in 2019. 

    -His numbers remained elite almost to the end of his career, but he was unable to stay on the field. 2018 at age 30, biceps tendinitis, back injury. 2019 age 31, back inflammation. 2019 is probably the first season we no longer had “peak” Kershaw.

    -The Dodges paid for Kershaw at just the right time, when he was already established as a dominant force and would be for the next 5 years.

    -Then around age 29 or 30, his body began to fail him. About the same age Skubal is right now.

    -Here’s how the Dodgers fared in Kershaw’s later years:

    -2017, Kershaw is age 29 – lost* in WS to Asterisks

    -2018, age 30 – lost in WS to Red Sox

    -2019, age 31 – lost in NLDS to Nats

    -2020, age 32 – won in WS over Rays

    -2021, age 33 – lost in NLDS to Fathers (Kersh was unavailable due to injury)

    -2022, age 34 – lost to Fathers in NLDS

    -2023, age 35 – swept by Snakes in NLDS

    -2024, age 36 – won in WS over Yankees (unavailable due to injury)

    -2025, age 37 – won in WS over Toronto

    -So one could argue, the Dodger’s recent October success actually increased after Kershaw began declining from his individual peak.

    -The team shifted from being one that often needed Kershaw to be superhuman to one deep enough to win without requiring him to carry them every October.

    -No doubt, he was still a meaningful contributor, especially in 2020. But later championship clubs in 2024 and 2025 could absorb his age and injuries in a way earlier Dodger teams could not.

    -Thankfully after his Hall of Fame career, he finished with three rings, and walked it off with the last two.

    -I’ll ask again. If you’re the Tigers GM, do you keep Skubal in the hope of winning the pennant and a series or two in October or do you cut your losses now for the future?

    -Sign the old man, Tigers.

  • Week twelve highlights, lowlights, and observations

    Week twelve highlights, lowlights, and observations

    -After pounding the Twins 12-3 last night the Dodgers have completed 49.3% of regular season games, and at 51-29 now enjoy a 9-game game lead over the second place padres. 

    -The Dodgers hit a minor skid last week but handled it like a championship caliber team. After losing two of three to the White Sox they pulled off three, one-run wins against the then first-place Rays, then ook two of three from the Orioles.

    -That is the mark of a team with character. Fall off the horse, immediately get back on and win five of six.

    -The Dodgers are the first team to 50 wins. No other team has more than 48.

    -Division standings can be deceiving. The Padres, currently at 41-37, would be tied for first if they played in the terrible AL Central. Those lovable last-place Angels, at 33-48, would be in fourth place, ahead of the Giants and Rockies, if their home was the NL West.

    -Sell the team, Arte!! Oops I’m sorry, it slipped out.

    -Speaking of the Giants last week they announced they are having a team garage sale and are open to parting with multiple heirlooms including Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, and four-time batting champion/defensive liability Luis Arraez.

    -So far Buster Posey’s era as San Francisco’s President of Baseball Operations has been a Giant disappointment (thank you, hold your applause).

    -The Dodgers coveted Willy Adames for years before the Gi-Aints swept in and nabbed him from Milwaukee. But he’s underperformed in San Francisco compared to his career numbers.

    -A thought is, take Adames, put him at short, move Mookie back to right where he belongs. I would push back hard on that. Given Mookie’s successful transition to short and Teo Hernandez’s pending return, I’d stand pat with what we have. Plus it’s not as if the Dodgers are struggling with Mook at short. Actually, they are excelling. Leave it be.

    -The interesting player to me is Arraez, who could be a hugely valuable asset in the post season if he would accept a part-time or bench role. Having a base-hit machine like him coming off the bench in the late innings could be a real advantage in October.

    -Or, DH him in the ninth slot on days when Ohtani pitches and bats leadoff, and you’ve essentially got two leadoff guys with close to .400 OBP back-to-back in middle and late innings.

    -Other notes around baseball. My Detroit Tigers are 12-4 in June and swept the White Sox last weekend. They lost a tough one to the Yankees last night and get another chance with them tonight, then get the Asterisks at home this weekend.

    -Michael Wacha, who wears #52 and might be that old, pitched seven scoreless on Monday night for Kansas City who beat the Rays 2-1. If the Royals played in the NL West…never mind, they’d still be terrible. But Kaufman Stadium is cool and I’m sad it might be going away.

    -The All-Star Game is around the corner and the player who has received the most votes in the NL and overall is no surprise: The Sho. The leading AL vote getter is…Judge? Trout? Alvarez? None of those slackers. It’s Blue Jays second baseman Ernie Clement. The All Star game is Tuesday, July 14th in Philadelphia.

  • Betts’ performance this year has helped, not hurt, his case for the Hall of Fame

    Betts’ performance this year has helped, not hurt, his case for the Hall of Fame

    Original art by @snarshall

    Ahh, the weight of expectations.

    When a generational player suddenly looks mortal, fans and media search for explanations. This season, the Dodgers’ player raising the most eyebrows is Marcus Lynn Betts, “Mookie” to… well, everyone. 

    The eight‑time All‑Star and former American League MVP has hit poorly all summer, and his slash line (.238/.309/.370 through July 25) stands more than 170 points below his 2023 peak. Pundits have pointed to his transition from right field to shortstop and his age‐32 season as possible culprits. Yet those surface factors distract from what I believe is the most likely cause: at the end of spring training Betts suffered a mystery illness that caused him to lose 15-25 pounds in roughly three weeks.

    To understand Betts’ season one must understand how severe weight loss impacts athletic performance, how Betts has compensated through defensive excellence, and why his performance this season, though mediocre by Betts’ standards, further cements his Hall of Fame credentials rather than damages them.

    Athletes need muscles. Also, water is wet.

    Standard medical guidance suggests that unexplained weight loss of more than 5% of one’s body weight, or more than 10 pounds over 6-12 months, is concerning and a red flag for more severe illness. These thresholds are important because the body’s energy stores and muscle mass are designed to support daily metabolic demand. Rapid weight loss signals that something has gone wrong with nutrient intake, metabolism, or both.

    In March 2025, just as the season was getting started, Betts got sick and blew through those clinical red flags. At the beginning of spring training he weighed approximately 175 pounds. Late in March he told reporters that an undiagnosed stomach ailment left him “vomiting for two weeks,” unable to keep solid food down. The sickness caused him to drop somewhere between 15 and 25 pounds in about 3 weeks. Remember, 5% weight loss in 6 months is concerning; Betts lost 14% in less than a month. 

    That would be like Will Smith, at 195 pounds, dropping down to 168. Guys like Betts, at 5’ 10”, 175 pounds and able to dunk a basketball, are lean to begin with. Unlike us desk jockeys, they fight to keep weight on, typically taking in 3,500 or more calories daily to keep up with the physical demands of their profession. But Betts’ body revolted against him. At the time, he described the sensation bluntly to reporters: “My body is basically eating itself…every time I eat anything I vomit.”

    In hitting, weight matters.

    Baseball is a skill sport, but it is also bio-mechanical. Generating bat speed and hard contact requires leverage and coordinated rotation of the legs, core and upper body. A drop in body mass means a loss of muscle, which in turn reduces bat speed, but also the body’s ability to absorb the stresses of daily play. Less muscle means less stored energy in the form of glycogen, the body’s internal blood sugar bank. Less glycogen means quicker fatigue and reduced peak force output. For hitters like Betts who rely on quick hands and a compact, powerful swing, even modest decreases in body mass can translate into slower bat speed and weaker contact.

    Statcast data from MLB’s Baseball Savant backs me on this. Before the illness, Betts routinely ranked in the top quartile of hitters in average exit velocity and bat speed. SI reported that in 2025 his average exit velocity fell to 88.3 mph, down 4.1 mph from his 2023 peak and the lowest of his career. His bat speed dipped to 68.8 mph, ranking only in the 11th percentile of MLB (although, Betts’ bat speed has never been great). Betts’ barrel rate (the percentage of batted balls struck with ideal launch angle and exit velocity) dropped to 5.5 percent, and his hard‑hit rate plummeted to 34.1 percent. 

    Can you blame the guy? He just lost 25 pounds three months ago. In retrospect, this was predictable. Of course his bat speed and power numbers were going to suffer.

    Q: But what about his age, or changing positions to shortstop?

    A: Get his HOF plaque ready.

    Look. 32 is not old by today’s baseball standards. Many elite hitters – and although his numbers are suffering this year, Betts is still an elite hitter – maintain high offensive production into their mid‑30s. Derek Jeter hit .330 at age 32 and remained above league average until 37. Betts’ body type and skill set (athleticism, plate discipline, contact ability) typically age better than sluggers who rely on brute strength. The rapidness of his drop from a .307/.408/.579 line in 2023 to .238/.309/.370 in 2025 suggests an external shock rather than a gradual decline. And his plate discipline remains excellent: his 2025 strikeout rate is hovering around 11%, elite for a modern hitter. Walk rate has dipped only slightly from 10.7% to about 9%. The elite mechanics are intact.

    So much has been made of the move to shortstop. SI speculated that “…the physical toll of playing short every day could be contributing to his struggles at the plate.” There is merit to the idea that moving to the infield from outfield adds wear and tear. However Betts’s hitting while playing short last year was solid, even though he was re-learning the position in real time. And re-learned the position he has. While his bat has struggled, Betts has become an above average, maybe excellent, shortstop. 

    According to Baseball‑Reference’s fielding metrics, Betts ranks second among MLB shortstops in total zone runs with 9 runs saved as of July 25th. Outs Above Average (OAA), a more advanced measure provided by Statcast, placed him in the 76th percentile, well above average. His throwing accuracy has visibly improved from a year ago. Baseball’s internal tracking labeled his range (as measured by Range Factor per nine innings) as 4.47, above league average. 

    Only a handful of stars – most notably Robin Yount in the 80’s – have played both the outfield and shortstop successfully, though Yount started as a shortstop and moved the the outfield, the “easier” direction. Betts has joined a very exclusive club and in doing so has built on his HOF resume.

    Hall of Fame voters also consider excellence over a sustained period. Betts’ eight All‑Star selections, seven Silver Slugger Awards, six Gold Gloves, three world championships and 2018 MVP provide a resumé few can match. Even in 2025, while his bat has suffered, he’s remained a team leader, has shown up every day with a smile, talks to fans and the media. He’s Mookie.

    When he eventually enters Cooperstown, the plaque will list his MVP award and his rings. It should also commemorate the season he lost 14% of his body weight, learned to play shortstop, and still found ways to help his team win.

    If the Dodgers win the last game of the season again this year, Betts will be a first ballot inductee. He should be, regardless.

    In a sport obsessed with numbers, context matters.

    Sources

    https://www.reuters.com/sports/dodgers-mookie-betts-out-lineup-vs-sox-could-return-saturday-2025-07-25/

    https://www.mlb.com/news/mookie-betts-battling-undiagnosed-illness

    https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/symptoms/unexplained-weight-loss

    https://www.uclahealth.org/news/article/unexplained-weight-loss-what-it-could-mean#

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/44385494/dodgers-mookie-betts-dealing-illness-lost-15-lbs

    https://people.com/dodgers-star-mookie-betts-lost-25-lbs-from-mystery-illness-11702538

    https://www.si.com/mlb/mookie-betts-decline-inside-the-numbers#

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2025-fielding-leaders.shtml#