-Following the body blow delivered by The Snakes last night the Dodgers are now 61-35 and their lead in the NL West is down to 12.5 games. 59.2% of the season is complete.
-Last weekend the Dodgers looked great against the Padres winning three of four. They came back twice in the first two games of the series last weekend. On Thursday, they were down 6-2 before pounding San Diego pitching for 17 hits on the way to a 12-7 win.
-Then on Friday, the Dodgers were down 3-nil only to have Teo Hernandez go full John Lee Hooker (boom boom). Ohtani pitched another great game, and the Dodgers won 4-3.
-“We never give up,” Teo said after that game.
-Then Dodgers became the first team to 60 wins this season hub by beating the Rockies last Monday night. Shohei Ohtani smacked his 300th career homer on Tuesday night, the 5th-fastest player to ever achieve that milestone.
-The Blue took 2 of 3 from the Rockies before hosting the Snakes Friday night and Yesterday. Sho skipped his start on Friday but homered (his 301st because, math is hard). Yamamoto gave up 5 runs in the 5th last night to have his ERA blow up to 2.49.
-Last weekend the Mets and Braves played a fun series, with the Mets earning a split. It was a missed opportunity for the Braves to extend their lead in the division, but the Mets decided to wake up and play some good baseball.
-Look, if you are a major league baseball team there’s never a bad time for you to play good baseball.
-Then again one gets the feeling that the season is going to be defined for the Mets in the next few weeks, as they decide whether to fight this one out or look to the future as the trade deadline approaches on August 3rd.
-Will they fight for a wildcard spot, or do the go full Alanis Morissette and choke down the jagged little pill that is selling off their players for the prospect of a better future?
-The Tigers are in the same situation with Tarik Skubal. The 2-time Cy Young winner in the AL is pitching well again and is a free agent at the end of the year. He’s 29 years young so could fetch quite a haul for Detroit should they decide to trade rather than sign him or – worst case for Tigers fans – let him walk and get nothing in return.
-The dilemma for Tigers management is that the team is 8-2 in their last 10, only 5.5 games back of division co-leaders Chicago and Cleveland, and play in a weak AL Central division.
-If you’re the Tigers GM, do you keep Skubal in the hopes of getting into October and going deep into the playoffs against weaker opponents, or cut your losses now and trade him for 2 or 3 top prospects. Or better yet, a ton of cash from LA or NY?
-Or do you try to lock-him in to a longer term deal, the way that the Dodgers did when they could with Kershaw?
-After winning his first Cy Young award in 2011, a year in which he won the pitching triple crown (wins, strikeouts, and ERA) in only his second full season and at age 25, in 2013 the Dodgers rewarded Kershaw with a 7-year, $215 million contract plus a $500K signing bonus. At the time it was the richest contract ever given to a pitcher.
-Kersh responded by winning the next two Cy Young awards, an a league MVP in 2014.
-The 2014 year was the best year I’ve ever seen a pitcher have, not nicknamed Bulldog. Kershaw was 21-3 with 1.77 ERA and 239 K’s.
-Also worth noting Kersh was Cy Young runner up in 2012 and 2017, and third in 2015.
-The decline really began in 2016, albeit a year when he underwent minor back surgery and still posted a 1.69 ERA in 149 innings – he missed about half the season that year. He was dominant but not the workhorse the Dodgers depended on from 2011-2015.
-Other health issues started creeping up, and with it, his fastball crept down. Average fastball velocity fell from 94.2 miles per hour in 2015 to 90.3 in 2019.
-His numbers remained elite almost to the end of his career, but he was unable to stay on the field. 2018 at age 30, biceps tendinitis, back injury. 2019 age 31, back inflammation. 2019 is probably the first season we no longer had “peak” Kershaw.
-The Dodges paid for Kershaw at just the right time, when he was already established as a dominant force and would be for the next 5 years.
-Then around age 29 or 30, his body began to fail him. About the same age Skubal is right now.
-Here’s how the Dodgers fared in Kershaw’s later years:
-2017, Kershaw is age 29 – lost* in WS to Asterisks
-2018, age 30 – lost in WS to Red Sox
-2019, age 31 – lost in NLDS to Nats
-2020, age 32 – won in WS over Rays
-2021, age 33 – lost in NLDS to Fathers (Kersh was unavailable due to injury)
-2022, age 34 – lost to Fathers in NLDS
-2023, age 35 – swept by Snakes in NLDS
-2024, age 36 – won in WS over Yankees (unavailable due to injury)
-2025, age 37 – won in WS over Toronto
-So one could argue, the Dodger’s recent October success actually increased after Kershaw began declining from his individual peak.
-The team shifted from being one that often needed Kershaw to be superhuman to one deep enough to win without requiring him to carry them every October.
-No doubt, he was still a meaningful contributor, especially in 2020. But later championship clubs in 2024 and 2025 could absorb his age and injuries in a way earlier Dodger teams could not.
-Thankfully after his Hall of Fame career, he finished with three rings, and walked it off with the last two.
-I’ll ask again. If you’re the Tigers GM, do you keep Skubal in the hope of winning the pennant and a series or two in October or do you cut your losses now for the future?
-Sign the old man, Tigers.
baldwinishere 