-The Dodgers are 86–57, just won four straight, and despite a losing record in August, lead the NL West by 10½ games over Arizona and 11 over San Diego. They’ve played 143 of 162 games, about 88% of the regular season, leaving 19 to go.
-My last column was posted 57 days ago. I went on a two-week vacation, took a week off to recover from my vacation, and laid low for a week or so before I thought about writing again. Around that time, my wife and I launched a new binging quest: the Better Call Saul/Breaking Bad/El Camino trilogy.
-On the surface, you’d think Breaking Bad has nothing to do with writing a baseball blog, but you’d only be half right. It has nothing to do with baseball and everything to do with not doing anything else.
-Now that I’m back, it’s time to wrap this season up and get to October, yo.
-The outcome of this season has never been about, “Will we win the division?” It’s always been about, “How do we line the season up for a three-peat?” (c) Pat Riley and the Showtime Lakers.
-We will win the division. The magic number is below ten. The next step is to line up the postseason, and the first order of business is to finish with the best record in the National League to ensure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. It’s within reach.
-As I write this, the Dodgers are two games behind Milwaukee for the best record in the National League. They finish the season with series against Cincinnati, Miami, Cincy again, San Francisco, San Diego, and back to the Giants. Combined winning percentage of those teams: .479, or 47.9%.
-Meanwhile, Milwaukee must wrap up its season with the Cubs, Reds, Pirates, Orioles, Phillies, and Cardinals. The combined winning percentage of those teams is .513, or 51.3%. Advantage Dodgers.
-Both the Dodgers and Brewers play about half their remaining games at home, so no clear advantage there for either team.
-If the Dodgers’ stars shake the August slump — as they did in both of the last two championship seasons — chances are good they end up with the league’s best record. There have been some good signs lately.
-Yesterday’s game was a prime example. Kyle Tucker robbed Nationals catcher Harry Ford of a homer in the top of the eighth, then Mookie Betts’ three-run homer in the bottom of the inning put the Dodgers ahead for good.
-Blake Snell has been nearly unhittable since his activation on August 11, stabilizing the rotation with a 1.97 ERA.
-Tommy Edman’s return after missing the first 2½ months of the season has come at a time when the Dodgers need him most. He’s done well filling in for Shohei as the leadoff hitter and playing center field while Pages is out.
-A quick note on injuries, starting with the biggest piece of all: Ohtani is back in the lineup as DH tonight after missing four straight games. His return to the mound is much less certain. There is no timetable, and at this point the Dodgers appear unlikely to use him as a pitcher again this season.
-Unless something changes dramatically over the final three weeks, the Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstrong has a legitimate chance to unseat Shohei Ohtani as the NL MVP this year. I love PCA’s game but didn’t love when he called out Dodger fans earlier this season.
-PCA might’ve been right about some fans going to games just to take selfies. But he shouldn’t generalize about all “Dodger fans” any more than Dodger fans should generalize about Cubs faithful all being about to keel over from eating too much deep dish.
-Besides, I’ve been to Chicago. You can’t eat too much deep dish.
-Other key injuries: Muncy was scratched Saturday with an illness but returned Sunday with three hits. Edwin Díaz has begun a rehab assignment in OKC and may return to LA in the next couple of weeks. Rushing is back on the 10-day IL, retroactive to September 5, with the Dodgers recalling Alfonzo for now. And how interesting/cool/odd was it to see Bobby Miller get the W on Sunday? He threw three innings in Sunday’s win.
It’s good to be back.
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